Super Prospects or Just Over-Hyped?

Larry Rooney

Uber prospects, super prospects, whatever you want to call them, these kids coming up from different MLB farm systems are very talented. But, just how much better are these guys compared to their significantly less touted counterparts? How much better are these guys performing in comparison to the mid-level prospects?

This article comes to you on the eve of yet another uber prospect making his debut this season. Noah Syndergaard, often nicknamed "Thor" due to his luscious locks and massive size, of the New York Mets is preparing to make his Major League debut on Tuesday, May 12th. Syndergaard steps into a starting rotation that has proven to be dominant and successful. He will have big shoes to fill as he steps in for the recently DL'ed Dillon Gee. Gee, after having a rocky start to the season, has improved every start and comes up short of a win all season. Over his last three starts, Gee has surrendered 4 combined runs. Although 0-2 on the season, Gee has proved to Mets fans and, more importantly, Terry Collins that he deserves to be in the starting rotation. Syndergaard, who has been dominating triple-A both on the mound and at the plate, will certainly have his hands full trying to fill in for Gee.

So far this season, the MLB has witnessed the coming of many of these uber prospects with Addison Russell and Kris Bryant leading the helm. But, have these super prospects lived up to their reputations? Bryant, who by all accounts should have made the Chicago Cubs Opening Day roster, was thought by fans to be the next home run king. Bryant, who mashed 9 home runs in just 40 at-bats this spring, showed significant talent and the ability to tear the cover off of the baseball yielding a 1.175 slugging percentage. Yet, Bryant wasn't given the opportunity to play for the Chicago Cubs on Opening Day. The Cubs decided to start Mike Olt who boasts a very impressive .158 lifetime batting average, while Kris Bryant started Opening Day in triple A Iowa batting fourth behind fellow uber prospect, Addison Russell. 

This decision, however, made sense from a front office perspective. If the Cubs had carried Bryant on the Opening Day 25-man roster, the Cubs would lose a year of control on Bryant's contract. After playing just 7 games for the Cubs' triple A affiliate, Bryant was called up to the big leagues after what must've felt like an eternity for him. On April 17th, 2015, Kris Bryant made his Major League debut; Kris wasn't given an easy task considering in his first at-bat he squared off against one of the game's best, James Shields. Shields struck Bryant out on 3 pitches in his first Major League plate appearance. Bryant rounded the afternoon off, going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts, which is not exactly what Cubs fans were expecting from their uber prospect. 

Bryant, who posted outstanding numbers in double and triple A, hasn't quite lived up to the hype that comes with the label "uber prospect." Over the course of 138 games last year, split between double and triple A, Bryant destroyed the ball batting at a tremendous .325 clip while ripping 43 homeruns and 34 doubles. He also drove in a huge number of RBIs, amassing 110 total over his 138 games played. This year, in the Majors, Bryant is hitting at a far less outstanding rate. In a small sample size, he has posted a .259 batting average and only hit one homerun. Bryant, however, has been able to drive in runs as he has accumulated 17 RBIs. 

So, what does this mean? Does the label “uber prospect” only exist to excite a fan base? Does triple A success translate to MLB success? There is no clear answer. Prospects succeed and fail no matter how they’re labeled. The only way to translate minor league success into Major League success is to work hard and do everything you can to be great. This, however, sometimes even fails the players. 

One example of a prospect extending beyond the limitations of "nonprospect" and rising into stardom is Jeff Kent. Believe it or not, Kent was never ranked in his organization's top prospect list. Obviously then, Kent was also never listed in Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List. Despite not even being labeled a mid-level prospect, Kent went on to enjoy a long prosperous career with 6 different teams. Over the entirety of his career, Kent produced a lifetime .290 batting average and mashed 377 homers and 560 doubles. Kent also totaled 2,461 hits during his career. Jeff won the NL MVP award in the 2000-01 season. Jeff's success and journey to triumph is one of many that defy the labels put on prospects from the minute they're drafted. 

So, with this being said, what can Kent's former team, the New York Mets, expect from their super prospect, Noah Syndergaard? How will Noah Syndergaard fair facing off against two highly acclaimed, super prospects who are also freshly called up? That's right, Syndergaard's first Major League appearance comes against the Chicago Cubs who along with their two super prospects, Bryant and Russell, possess some of the league's best young hitters. 

It's very fitting that Noah Syndergaard makes his debut against two of his highly touted counterparts. Also, during the winter there were rumors Syndergaard may have been in the move to the Windy City as the New York Mets were desperately looking for a shortstop. Luckily for Mets fans, their GM Sandy Alderson held onto his core group of young pitching rather than sacrificing the future for the immediate now. 

In preview of this matchup, educated fans will look to Syndergaard's numbers in hitter-friendly triple-A Las Vegas. He put up outstanding numbers for the 51s. Syndergaard boasts a 3-0 record while maintaining a 1.82 ERA over 29.2 innings pitched for his triple-A team. Syndergaard's 3 wins came in the middle of the 51s 14 game win streak. Noah was vital to Las Vegas's hot start to the season.

(Source: SNY)

As well as dominating on the mound, Syndergaard destroyed his opponents at the plate. Over 4 games, he had a batting average of .455 with one homerun, two doubles, and 4 runs scored. Needless to say, Syndergaard has been helping his own cause in Las Vegas. It is, however, reasonable to say that Syndergaard's hot start with the bat won't translate to the Majors as there's been too small of a sample size to say he's the next great hitting pitcher. One thing that is apparent, though, is that his 6'6", 240 pound frame is no joke. His lightning quick fastball and power at the plate are evidence of this.

With this being said, it'd be unreasonable to say that he has to be as dominant on the Major League level as he was with Las Vegas right away. There are plenty of factors that could affect his performance, which almost all lead back to the first game in the big league jitters. Often times, pitchers making their Major League debuts tend to overthrow. This causes pitchers to throw and force the ball rather than delivering the pitch to the plate, which leads to walks, wild pitches, hit batters, etc. This isn’t to say, however, that Syndergaard won’t be able to go out on Tuesday night and shutout the Chicago Cubs in his first appearance in the Majors.

To play it safe, New York Mets fans should expect a fairly solid outing but not a perfect one. According to baseball’s “super prospect” label, Mets fans should be expecting perfection right off the bat. But in the grand scheme of things, these labels aren’t fact but rather speculation. Unfortunately for Mets fans, Syndergaard could wind up being the next Paul Wilson, who like Syndergaard was seen as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. Wilson pitched one season with the New York Mets and suffered a 5-12 record coupled with a 5.38 ERA.

Needless to say, both the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs have very bright futures ahead of them. The Cubs have paved their future path to success on the strength of their young, talented position players; whereas, the New York Mets have begun their journey to success centered around their young flamethrowers. These two teams will continue to battle each other for years to come as two of the best teams in the National League and all of baseball.