The Kluberization Effect and Its Untimely Demise

Matthew Kress

Let me take you back to about a month ago. It’s April 5th, the skies in Philadelphia are gray (as per usual) and the temperature is a cool 42 degrees Fahrenheit. First floor in the McShain dorms of Saint Joe's the MLB network is on 24/7 broadcasting every spring training game. A sudden ESPN alert pops up on a phone lying on an un-kept bed. A pitcher who went 18-9 in 2014 with an ERA of 2.44 in 235.2 innings pitched has just been handsomely rewarded for his Cy Young season, to the tune of $38.5 million dollars over five years with team options for 2020 and 2021. Justifiable, one would think? Right? The kid’s got the highest whiff rate of any curveball in the MLB.

(Lee Corso enters the room)

The baseball gods will take it from here. Corey Kluber, after wining the AL Cy Young, has had one of the worst starts to a in modern history, accumulating a 0-4 record with a 4.62 ERA in his first six starts of the young 2015 season.



Yikes! So what’s wrong with the former Cy Young award winner? Was it a fluke? Is he in a funk? Has the monster called the American League claimed yet another victim?

This story starts simply with a fastball, and a number of baseball geeks reacting with orgasmic proportions. Corey Kluber has not always been a major league ace. The 29 year old has never shown enough to be considered a prospect, or can’t miss talent. That was until he made a switch which baseball followers call the Kluberization effect. In 2011, Kluber was another struggling lifetime minor leaguer looking to make a switch. As highlighted in Eno Sarris’ article “Ditching the Four-Seamer” Kluber on Fangraphs Kluber said “I was getting hit around and was having trouble working consistently down in the zone,” with an ERA over five in Triple-A. Big league pitching coach Mickey Callaway and then-Triple-A pitching coach Ruben Niebla talked to Kluber and advocated the two-seamer. The change has taken to Kluber — “I hardly ever throw the four-seamer any more.” Thus with a switch to the two-seam fastball Kluber finds it much easier to sink the ball down in the zone and improve his ground ball rate. Thus using the more democratic way of pitching, getting ground balls. Pairing that with an absolutely devastating arsenal of off speed, consisting of a change-up (22% whiff rate), slider (20%) whiff rate, and cutter (15% whiff rate) in 2014.

Now what about the demise of the AL Cy Young award winner? It’s a combination of many factors that have made Kluber look like rookie in the first month of the 2015 campaign. First even though he made the change to the two-seam fastball, the pitch is still one of the more hittable pitches in his arsenal. The peripherals show that hitters are slashing Kluber in 2015: .316/.363/.442; but this can’t be the only factor to his early season slump. He’s also struggling against left handed hitters as apparent in the ESPN graphic provided below.



In non-baseball terms there’s a lot of red in the middle of the zone. In my expert opinion Kluber is still struggling with his command. In many starts you can see him hanging his breaking ball as well as leaving that sinker over the plate. It’s a command issue not a talent issue. In the end don’t worry about Kluber. He may not return to his Cy young form but he’ll definitely return to form once he reestablishes his command and the season moves to the dog days of summer. As August Fagerstrom summarizes, Corey Kluber still has a better K% than Chris Sale, a better BB% than David Price, a better HR/9 than Clayton Kershaw; so don’t jump off the bandwagon yet.