Evaluating the Phillies' Trade Pieces

Nick Mandarano

“Now is Ruben’s chance to build his team. I mean he was handed a good team.”

A little more than a week ago, Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. received an enormous amount of backlash for claiming that Philadelphia fans aren’t knowledgeable. He proceeded to defensively argue that the Phillies do have a plan in place for the future of the team, despite the opinion of fans. I recently spoke with an AL Scout about the Phillies’ possible trade pieces. All the following quotes, unless otherwise noted, are from the scout:

Cole Hamels

“The Phillies have every right to milk what they can.”

Straight from Jeff Samardzija’s Baseball-Reference player page…“July 5, 2014: Traded by the Chicago Cubs with Jason Hammel to the Oakland Athletics for Billy McKinney (minors), Addison Russell, Dan Straily and cash.”

Deals involving Hamels have been discussed and often close to complete, but there seems to be a reoccurring issue regarding Amaro asking for too much in return. The Phillies aren’t asking for players that are better potentially than what the Cubs got in return for Samardzija. The Cubs got a ridiculous return for a guy that had for three months, and Hamels has a couple years left on his contract. The scout suggested that there’s no reason to rush a trade with Hamels and the right move is to wait for a team to get desperate enough because it will be then that the Phillies can get what they’re asking for, maybe even both Blake Swihart and Mookie Betts.

“Cole Hamels is a top of the rotation starter. He’s a guy that could push you over the top and give you a chance to win every fifth day. He is worth your top prospect. When it’s time to rock and roll, and if [another team] feels Hamels is that guy they need, they will give that extra guy up. There’s no reason to trade Hamels yesterday. They have time.”

Understanding there’s no rush to force a Hamels trade, I asked if he though Hamels would be traded this year.

“You would have to think someone’s going to step up and see the opportunity to nab him, and it might hurt but you have Cole Hamels for this year and [following years]. It would probably be a team that’s on the brink of being competitive this year and has a chance to be competitive in the playoffs, and a thinks that next year they can be an even stronger club.”

He went on to criticize the teams that claim Amaro’s asking price is too high, explaining how teams today overvalue prospects.

“Prospects are prospects, that’s all they are. Who’d the Phils give up for Cliff Lee? The only one who’s biting them in the butt is Carlos Carrasco, who wouldn’t even be with the Phillies organization anyway. What did they get for Cliff Lee from Seattle? Phillippe Aumont, who's underperformed. Tyson Gillies, who’s essentially out of baseball. Prospects who turned out to be nothing.”

“In reality, you’re getting a good number one starter for your team. And if you’re giving up potential all-stars, potential players that are going to be impactful players, I mean yeah it’s gonna hurt. But again, it’s potential.

Ben Revere

“He’s a center fielder and there’s a value to him. He has a toolset that can play every day.”

“He’s not that good of a fielder, but he has the speed to make up for it. He’s not that player who will be aggressive. He’s not that home run hitter. He is a singles hitter who tries to get on base. He doesn’t get on base enough through the walk, but he puts the ball in play. He makes the defense rush and if the defense makes a mistake, it’s a base hit.”

“He gives away at-bats by swinging out of the zone and making contact, but that contact produces groundballs that he can beat out. Other players would not be able to beat that out, so they’d be hitting .260 while getting on base at a .330 clip. Revere will hit .270 or .280 and get on base at a .320 clip. There’s not as much of a difference between on-base percentage and batting average [with Revere]. He’s not a .300 hitter; he’s not that good. He hits .300 because of his legs, it’s that simple. Phillies fans should not be frustrated with him.”

Basically, Revere is what he is. The scout thought that maybe fans had too high of expectations for him, but believes he is a solid player. Michael Bourn came up a few times during the conversation as a comparative player to Revere. It was also noted that Revere is just 27 and entering the prime of his career. This specific scout thought relatively high of Revere, at least higher than most others.

“Most of the analytics don’t really like him. Scouts just kind of view him as iffy. But he has a chance to provide more value than he perceives, in my opinion. I like him more than others. I also know that the consensus about him isn’t that high, and everyone else knows that too, and the Phillies do want to trade him and get something for him. If the Phils get like a Victor Arano, who they got for Roberto Hernandez, by all means that’s a good deal for the Phillies because Arano has a good chance to be a good ballplayer.”

Ryan Howard

“He’s an American League only player. He’ll get some more miles as a DH.”

Fans are calling for Amaro and crew to move Howard because his value is at a peak. He’s off to his best start since 2011 slashing .234/.276/.473 with 10 home runs and 25 RBIs just 50 games into the season. The 35-year old slugger is on pace for 30+ home runs, a feat that he once guaranteed but hasn’t achieved since that 2011 season. The scout believed there’s no rush to get rid of Howard though, and that his value will rise more as we enter the heat of June, July, and August.

“He’s going to heat up when the summer comes on. Once the pitchers get tired and the fastballs get a little slower and get over a little bit into his zone, he’s going to hit more home runs and someone’s going to bite, its just a matter of when.”

The problem is not that he hit .233 and averaged 16 home runs and 104 RBIs per 162 games in the stretch from 2012-14. The problem is that in those three years, he withdrew $65 million from the bank of the Phillies. Wait, there’s more. He’s due $25 million this year and $25 million the next before a $23 million club option with a $10 million buyout in 2017.

“The more money the Phillies take, the bigger the prospects you’ll have to give up for him. That’s what teams are worried about. In reality, it’s a hard contract to dump and to dump to only 15 [American League] teams. Someone will probably go for it because that left-handed power threat, whether it be everyday or off the bench to platoon a little bit, is extremely valuable but…I don’t know who. He’s not wanted in Philadelphia, fans are getting frustrated with him. He’s worth something to somebody, just a matter of who. I don’t know who. I don’t know.”

I asked him to evaluate some possible landing spots for Howard, but he wasn’t kidding. Despite being convinced someone would bite, he truly had no idea who.

"The Cardinals need a first baseman, and I’m sure they’ve had some discussions with Philadelphia about it, but [Howard’s] not really a Cardinals plays, per say. The Marlins need a first baseman, but they’re scuffling a little bit”

Jonathan Papelbon

“There’s definitely interest around the league.”

It seems every year we’re graced with Papelbon’s kind words toward Philadelphia proclaiming he’d really rather be anywhere else. As great as he is, a closer of Papelbon’s caliber is nothing but a luxury for a team like the Phillies. His name has been mentioned among the trade rumors for a few years now. If you recall from last season, the Tigers traded away two of their top prospects for Joakim Soria.

“[Jake] Thompson is freaking good. He’s a middle of the rotation starter and maybe better than that. Corey Knebel is a big league reliever already and with Milwaukee now. [The Phillies] want the same package.”

“There’s no reason to rush a trade, and get something they don’t want just because they’re getting some pressure from the media and from the fans. By July 31st, a lot of things could happen. There’s no reason to trade anyone right now.”

The scout did believe though that by the trade deadline, there would be worthy trade offers. For example, “a team that needs an extra closer or that extra relief piece to come in and help shut down a game. [That team] will come and they will give something up for him.”



With all of this being noted, the most assuring and comforting quote that the scout offered me:

“It’s definitely not going to be 1994 to 2007.”