5 Fantasy Busts That Will Break Your League's Draft

JT Volpe

       August fast approaches, and with the end of summer comes the beginning of Fantasy Football season. Last year, owners who went big on QB's before runningbacks were pleased, as 8 of the top 10 point scorers played under center. This year should again prove to be a QB heavy year, however with so many good QB's out there, your success will be made or broken on how well you draft at your other skill positions. In this article I'll give you a heads up on 5 guys you should definitely be passing on this year. Next week, I'll have my Top 5 Sleepers so you'll know who to pick after the guy ahead of you takes one of my busts.

1. Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos

        It's hard to see last year's #4 overall player and future Hall of Famer, Peyton Manning on the bust list, but several factors indicate this might be the year. First, is last year's dreadful second half of the season. Manning had a great first 8 weeks and at many times was #1 overall, but nagging injuries ruined his second half and he, and the Broncos, limped to a poor finish. Peyton will be healthier this year than the end of last year, but at 39 years old, its tough to imagine he'll be fully recovered. On top of that, the Colts enter the season with a new Head Coach in Gary Kubiak. With a new coach comes a new offense, and owners should expect some early season growing pains. My final point is pure speculation but with top WR target Demaryius Thomas signing a large contract extension you have to wonder if he will provide the same production he did before the big payday. When all is said and done Manning will be a good fantasy player and most definitely in the Top 20. But I see him falling from his status as a Top 5 lock.

2. DeMarco Murray, RB Philadelphia Eagles

     

        Last year's #7 overall player - and the highest among non QB's - DeMarco Murray burst on to the fantasy scene last year racking up nearly 1,900 yards and playing only 4 games where he didn't break the century mark. His season mirrored the season of the Cowboys as a whole, breaking through a stretch of mediocrity and becoming elite. But Murray's surprises didn't stop when the 'Boys lost to Green Bay in last year's playoffs. He continued to spin heads by signing with divisional rival Philadelphia in the offseason. Owners beware, the midnight green will not treat DeMarco as well as royal blue, Why? Reason one is the offensive line Murray is now behind. The Eagles O-line is good, but with the departures of Todd Herremans and Evan Mathis they won't be great. Allen Barbre is a question mark at best and we've yet to see free agent signing John Moffitt on the field as an Eagle. His career to date is nothing to write home about. Secondly, a look at Murray's workload last year predicts this year's decline. Murray carried the ball 393 times last season, and was absolutely abused by Jason Garrett and the Cowboys offense. History shows that after 370 or more carries, most RB's will see production decline. Seemingly the only exception is Ladanian Tomlinson. Even more notable is the fact that before last year's 393 carries, Murray's career high was 217. An 81% increase in carries will mean a longer recovery than Murray has ever had in his career. The biggest factor here though, is probably Chip Kelly. The Eagles Head Coach is almost certainly aware of Murray's workload last year and its likely effects. Which explains why he signed Ryan Matthews as well this offseason. Matthews and returning Eagle Darren Sproles should take some of the carries and relieve Murray a bit. While good for the Eagles this is bad for fantasy owners. Another Matthew's effect will be goal line situations. Murray scored 15 touchdowns last year, with 14 coming from inside the red zone. If the Matthew's and Sproles tandem pigeon 7 or 8 of those short field scores Murray could see a huge drop off in total points. He'll certainly not be a bad pick, but don't make Murray your feature back. 

3. Philadelphia Eagles, D/ST Philadelphia Eagles

     

        Another case of the Eagles getting better on paper and worse for fantasy owners. The Birds D scored an absolutely mind boggling 11 TD's last season. The next closest was 6. There's just no way the Eagles score 11 times again on the wrong side of the ball.

4. Jimmy Graham, TE Seattle Seahawks 

     

        Graham is a bit of a tough case, as he's about as good a receiving target as Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Unfortunately for Graham, RB Marshawn Lynch will get most of the offensive production, and with Russel Wilson capable of rushing for near 1000 yards, there isn't a ton of yardage left to go around. Additionally, Wilson is often capable of taking the ball himself for more yards than a checkdown to the TE would net. Graham will have a sub-100 point year.

5. Jeremy Maclin, WR Kansas City Chiefs 

     

        Maclin got his first chance as a true number one receiver last year and thrived, scoring 182 points on 1800+ yards. But Maclin signed with Kansas City in the offseason and moves to a team that had 0 TD's scored by WR's lsat year. Take out Maclin's 10 TD's and he loses 40 points out of the gate. Andy Ried's offense in KC is designed around RB Jamaal Charles and utilizes slant and dig routes more than any other team in the AFC. And as bad as Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez were last year on deep balls, Alex Smith just might be worse. I'm not saying Maclin won't score ANY TD's but he'll score less and be under 1100 yards.

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