Breaking Down Both Sides of the Kazmir Trade

Nick Mandarano

In the first notable trade of the MLB trade season, Scott Kazmir is headed back home to Houston. Kazmir was part of a trade on Thursday that sent prospects Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham back to the Athletics. The 31-year old Houston native is 5-5 with a 2.38 ERA, which is 5th in the American League. In the final year of his contract, Kazmir will be added to an already capable rotation consisting of Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers, and Scott Feldman. However, the Astros are hopeful that if Kazmir likes pitching in his hometown, a 2-month rental could turn into a 3- or 4-year contract.

Kazmir is another top-end guy who will compliment Keuchel as a second lefty at the top of the rotation. A 1-2 punch of Keuchel and Kazmir is not just enough to help the Astros reclaim a division that had been theirs for most of the season, but a combo that can match that of any other team in the postseason.

On the flipside of the trade are Oakland and two new young prospects. It wasn’t even a year ago that the Athletics were making a serious push to be postseason favorites, but before they knew it they were bounced in the Wild Card game after a drastic late-season collapse. Now, here they sit as sellers in the basement of the AL West, dealing away aces in exchange for a brighter future…or so they hope.

All the attention from this trade is on Kazmir, and deservingly so for obvious reasons. But there are two other players involved in this trade that are very important to the future of Oakland baseball. After all, Oakland didn’t trade Kazmir just because. They traded Kazmir in an attempt to better their future. So I spoke with an American League scout who has extensive knowledge of these prospects.

The first thing he said about Jacob Nottingham: “He’s a beast.” Nottingham is a 20-year old, 6’3” 230 lb. catcher currently playing High-A ball and listed as the Astros’ 22nd best prospect. The scout described him as a very strong, thick man who is surprisingly athletic given his size. Defensively, he’s nothing special, but he’s steadily developing. It’s his offensive abilities that have scouts raving. If he can be “serviceable defensively,” his bat could surely be productive at the Major League level at some point in the future. He’s got a strong, powerful swing and consequently hits a lot of homeruns and hits a lot of balls hard.

In high school, Nottingham was a football player. The University of Arizona actually recruited him to be a tight end at the college level, but asked him to lose weight. He refused. To give an idea of how strong and powerful this kid is: he once broke a quarterback’s ribs in a high school game. The scout I spoke with believed that Nottingham will be at least a Major League average catcher due to his potential with a bat as long as his defense is serviceable. We can expect Nottingham to begin next year at the AA level and be at big league camp in a few years, but he’s at least two away.

Daniel Mengden is the other half of the return package. He’s a fourth-round right-handed pitcher who was once a projected first-round pick. He’s got an injury history, as his back has been an issue in the past. He’s got a bit of an odd delivery, but executes his pitches. His curveball tends to be his out-pitch, but his slider is supposedly his best pitch. This specific scout thinks he’s better served out of the bullpen in the future rather than a starter.

Mengden, the Astros’ 19th best prospect, is a competitor. He’s intense on the mound and sometimes has trouble keeping the ball low. His fastball has picked up velocity and sits in the low to mid-90s. Between his fastball and other solid pitches, he’s an “overall quality package.” Additionally, he’s developing a change-up to compliment his fastball. The scout made sure to reiterate how competitive this guy really is several times. The 22-year old has “a very slight chance” to be in the Bigs by the end of next year, but it’s more likely to see him in the 2017 rotation/bullpen. If they decide to utilize him as a bullpen arm, the route would be a bit quicker.

Both prospects have the potential to be good Major League players when ready, but it doesn’t seem like they will be ready very soon. Let’s not forget, Kazmir was incredibly unlikely to resign with Oakland following the season. These prospects do have high-upside, and the risk is not as severe considering Kazmir wouldn’t be with the club in 2016. Not a bad job at all, it seems, by Billy Beane.

However, while Oakland did what they needed to do by trading Kazmir and investing in the future, it’s really Houston who came out on top in this trade. Prospects are prospects. There’s a chance neither of these players ever reach the top level, but they probably will. And they’ll probably be decent to good players, but nothing I’ve heard or seen convinces me that they’ll be sure-fire Major League stars. Meanwhile, Kazmir is the push the Astros need to get back to the top of the division and make a playoff run. And if Kazmir does in fact resign with the team after the season, which remember is a strong possibility, Houston adds a second ace to their rotation for years to come, with maybe even a third ace rising in Lance McCullers.

Oh, and by the way…don’t think for a second that Houston is done.