Fantasy Football: First Round Running Backs a Rarity?

Larry Rooney

Preparing for this year’s fantasy football draft with your friends? Round one of fantasy football drafts typically sees the best of the running backs disappear quickly. But this year, who are the best running backs? Are there any backs worth taking in the first round?
The short answer is yes, but the long answer is that there’s really only one, maybe two. Le’Veon Bell is a sure fire first round selection; he, however, will be facing a two game suspension to start the season. While this could push him back to a second or third round pick, I predict that Bell will be drafted in the first round of most NFL fantasy drafts.

Aside from Bell, the running back class this year is filled with loads of question marks, which could make this year’s fantasy drafts one of the toughest you’ve ever had to participate in.

While Marshawn Lynch has experienced a steady incline in fantasy production, fantasy players should be weary. The Seahawks have recently acquired tight end Jimmy Graham, a very talented receiver. This could cause the Seahawks to rely on Lynch’s ground and pound beast mode a little less. Lynch is turning 29 and his very physical play style should start to take an effect on his production as well. Also, Coach Pete Carroll may decide to rely on QB Russell Wilson to make the play calls more this year after the bonehead play call his coaching staff made in one of the final plays of Super Bowl XLIX. Ultimately, the Seahawks will remain a run first team and you can count on Lynch for solid production. I could see Beast Mode being the only other back to join Bell as first round selections.

These unknowns and variables could make picking a running back after Le’Veon Bell very difficult.

Take a look at last year’s top fantasy running backs from a standard NFL.com fantasy league:

1) DeMarco Murray(294.10): 1845 rushing yards

2) Le’Veon Bell(287.50): 1361 rushing yards

3) Marshawn Lynch(266.30): 1306 rushing yards

4) Matt Forte(244.60): 1038 rushing yards

5) Arian Foster(235.50): 1246 rushing yards

6) Eddie Lacy(230.60): 1139 rushing yards

There you have it, the top 6 running backs from 2014. Where’s Adrian Peterson? Where’s Ray Rice? Where’s LeSean McCoy? All three were top running backs in 2013, but suffered shortened or ineffective seasons. AP and Rice faced suspensions for domestic violence off the field, and Shady faced an uhealthy dose of ineffective running and saw fewer carries due to the success of his partner Darren Sproles.

Rice still team-less is looking for an “in” back into the league, and until he finds one he’s all but untouchable. Even should he be given a second chance, Rice will likely not be on anyone’s wish list as far as fantasy running backs.

Adrian Peterson can never be counted out of top running back potential. He, however, still has quite a bit of ambiguity around him. It is likely Peterson will receive the bulk of the load at running back. But now several years older, will AP’s body be able to handle another year off and noncontact? If you remember, AP suffered a torn ACL a couple years back. Upon his return to the league, AP put up insane fantasy number, amassing 308.8 fantasy points that year. The biggest reason Peterson might slip to the second or third round will be the questions surrounding his ability to recover from a lost year.

LeSean “Shady” McCoy saw a steady decline in his fantasy numbers due rather lackluster play. Shady did not dazzle on the field the way Coach Chip Kelly expected. McCoy was expected build off of an extremely impressive 1600 rushing yard season the year prior. Shady regressed to roughly 1300 yards and fewer touchdowns scored. The fewer rushing touchdowns and no receiving touchdowns is what hurt McCoy’s fantasy value. The Eagles organization traded McCoy to Buffalo for LB Kiko Alonzo, which could also play a factor in Shady’s production.

It’s worth noting that Houston’s Arian Foster suffered a groin injury earlier this week, which will likely sideline him for at least half of Houston’s games this season. This is a tremendous blow to the Texans team and to fantasy players everywhere.

Also worth noting is Kansas City Chiefs’ running back Jamaal Charles. Charles is a consistent fantasy performer as he provides production both on the ground and through the air. Much like Le’Veon Bell, Charles is a fantastic receiving back and will be able to produce accordingly. Charles will garner a ton of total yards and total scores. Ultimately, Charles will likely fall to a very early second round pick this year, as his playing time may be slightly affected by RB Knile Davis who split time with Charles last season as well, which held Jamaal Charles out of the top 6 fantasy running backs last season. Between splitting time with Davis and injuries, Charles saw a slight dip in his fantasy production last season.

The bust of all busts for this fantasy season will be Philly’s DeMarco Murray. After earning a tremendous pay day from his impressive pay last season, the running back will find that it is much more difficult to run the ball without Dallas’s huge offensive line in front of him. While Philadelphia boasts an impressive offensive line, it is no match for Dallas’s. Murray will find that his holes are smaller and open for shorter periods of time this season. It will be interesting to see how Murray handles the new environment. Fantasy players beware of DeMarco Murray.

Here’s how I think this year’s top 6 fantasy running backs will pan out:

1) PIT Le’Veon Bell

2) SEA Marshawn Lynch

3) MIN Adrian Peterson

4) KC Jamaal Charles

5) CHI Matt Forte

6) GB Eddie Lacy