Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Fantasy Madness: Week 3 Recap and Week 4 Preview

David Powis



Fantasy Week 3 of the NFL season has come to a close as the landscape of the league is beginning to take shape. Allow me to start with the first game of the week, where the Giants finally finished a game (barely) dropping Washington to 1-2. The Redskins’ vaunted rushing attack gathered a measly 84 total yards against a banged up Giants defense. Eli looked good, and Odell Beckham appears to be long passed his rough preseason and Week 1. Now to the Sunday games: The Eagles also got win #1, and looked pretty good doing it. Bradford played safe, and Ryan Matthews reminded Eagles fans what it’s like to have a running back gain positive yards. By the way, does Darren Sproles age? The Jets disappointed, as the self-proclaimed best receiver in the NFL made a…um…questionable?...decision.

Pittsburgh lost Big Ben to injury for at least 4 weeks, probably more, which can only mean one thing...IT’S VICK TIME. Speaking of injuries, Dallas blew an early 14-point lead against Atlanta as Big D looks to learn life without Romo or Dez. The Seattle defense certainly appreciated the return of Kam Chancellor, as they dominated an awful Bears offense to the point where CHI punter, Pat O’Donnell, sprained his knee after punting on every one of their 10 possessions.

So, as we look back on the week that was, who impressed, and who fell flat? And what can you do to improve come week 4?

Week 3 Studs:

Tyrod Taylor: Buffalo Bills; QB
Who saw this coming? After two impressive games, Taylor put together possibly his best game of the year so far, as his Bills routed the Dolphins. Completing 22/29 passes for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns, and rushing for 12 yards on 3 attempts, he once again kept the ball out of harm’s way, and got an important division win. Looking forward, the Giants defense has already surrendered over 1000 yards passing, I like Taylor’s chances in Week 4.
Notables: Cam Newton, Andy Dalton

Davonta Freeman: Atlanta Falcons; RB
After amassing a pedestrian 3 and 11 points in weeks 1 and 2 respectively, Freeman was the big winner of the day, rushing for 147 yards on 30 carries and scoring 3 times. The Falcons made the right decision to give the workload to Freeman after Tevin Coleman got injured in Week 2 and with Coleman expected to be out a few weeks, Freeman will continue to get the looks for Atlanta.
Notables: Chris Johnson, Joseph Randle

A.J. Green: Cincinnati Bengals; WR
After a slow first two weeks of the 2015 season, A.J. Green exploded for 227 yards on 10 receptions and 2 TDs against a Ravens defense that allowed 45 points to Oakland receivers in week 2. Making play after play for the Andy Dalton, he reminded owners why he deserves to be the number one guy on any team. With Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard also off to slow starts, look for Green to be the primary target for Cincy as they head to play a much better Kansas City defense.
Notables: Steve Smith, Julio Jones

Greg Olsen: Carolina Panthers; TE
Owners of Olsen (me included) were getting very frustrated with the lack of production from Olsen. Especially considering the targets expected to be going to the injured Kelvin Benjamin, have seemingly gone elsewhere. Until now. Olsen put together a very productive day, reeling in 8 receptions on 11 targets, for 134 yards and 2 scores. The real question here is can Olsen get going against a Tampa defense that has been pretty solid at keeping TEs at bay.
Notables: Jimmy Graham, Charles Clay

Top D/ST’s
Cardinals: 4 INT, 2 TD, 7 PA—30 PTS
Broncos: 2 INT, 1 FR, 12 PA—17 PTS
Seahawks: 1 INT, 0 PA—16 PTS

Week 3 Duds:

Philip Rivers: San Diego Chargers; QB
While the Vikings are not a bad defense, they certainly weren’t supposed to hold Rivers to a very poor 9 points. After completing a staggering 81% in the first two weeks, Rivers completed only 61% of attempts for 246, 1 TD, and a pick. This is the second straight less-then-stellar week for Rivers, as he and the Chargers face a stingy Cleveland defense. Rivers and co. need to get the ship going soon in an improved AFC West.
***Had to make a note of just how awful Colin Kaepernick was, wanted to make him my dud, but we’ve come to expect this from him. (4 INT)***

Jeremy Hill: Cincinnati Bengals; RB
The good, he didn’t fumble this week. The bad, he forgot what to do with the ball when he actually held on to it. Managing a meager 21 yards on 12 carries sure isn’t going to make fantasy owners forget about his abysmal Week 2. Just ask Matt Kress. Also alarming, is the fact that fellow back Giovani Bernard is seeing increased carries, and Dalton has looked fantastic through the air. Hill could be getting phased out a little.

Calvin Johnson: Detroit Lions; WR
For most other receivers an 8 catch, 77 yard performance against a very tough Denver secondary would be considered to be halfway decent. That stat line gets Megatron a dud title for Week 3. Why? He is not on any fantasy team to get 7 points. He hauled in only 8 of his 14 targets this past week, so the problem isn’t that the ball was elsewhere, he just wasn’t making the plays. The road ahead should make those depending on Johnson to come through for their team should be a little worried, considering Detroit’s next two are in Seattle and then against Arizona.

Zach Ertz: Philadelphia Eagles; TE
Granted he was going up against a talented Jets defense, but 2 catches for 30 yards simply isn’t going to cut it. In a game where you would’ve thought Sam Bradford would be looking for the QB’s best friend, the pass catching TE, Ertz was nowhere to be found. He was only targeted twice, and he did catch both targets, but this is worrisome for the rest of the year, as it appears Ertz just isn’t part of the plan for the offense.

Add/Drops for Week 4:

Add:

Karlos Williams (BUF): (12 ATT, 110 YDS, 1 TD)
With the potential of starter LeSean McCoy sitting out versus the Giants this week, Williams looks to take over the reins at RB. The Giants have been stout against the run, but have surrendered many big plays out of the backfield to running backs. Expect Buffalo to use him in a similar way as they would McCoy.

Rueben Randle (NYG): (7 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD)
Victor Cruz sustained a set-back to his calf injury on Wednesday during practice.  This allows Randle to remain in the number two spot against Buffalo.  After a big week last week, Eli and Ben McAdoo will be looking to go back towards him if he can remain reliable.

Charles Clay (BUF): (5 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD)
Facing a Giants defense that has allowed the third-most yards to opposing tight ends, Clay is sure to see a good amount of targets in Week 4.

Drop:

Chris Johnson (ARZ):
With the impending return of Andre Ellington, it seems likely that Johnson sees a sharp decrease in his snaps.

Ryan Mathews (PHI):
Though not listed as back in the lineup just yet, DeMarco Murray is back at practice. Matthews will probably return to the back-up spot in week 4.

Sleeper:

Melvin Gordon, RB (SD):
It is time for Gordon to get the majority of the carries in San Diego. After 3 solid performances, (though none being big fantasy games), San Diego faces the league’s worst run defense, Cleveland. This is finally the time for Gordon, and he will deliver, look for an increased workload, especially considering the San Diego offense has been struggling thus far. If there was ever a week to start paying attention to Gordon, this week seems like the perfect time.

Injury Report:

Ben Roethlisberger—Knee sprain: 4-6 weeks
LeSean McCoy—Hamstring: According to Rex Ryan, it “doesn’t look good” for McCoy in Week 4.
Vernon Davis—Knee sprain: Likely to miss Week 4
Victor Cruz -- Reportedly suffered set-back during practice on Wednesday, likely to miss Week 4.

**LIKELY TO PLAY**
Andre Ellington
Drew Brees
Alshon Jeffery
DeMarco Murray


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