Stop It with the Early Fantasy Drafts

Nick Mandarano

Last year, I had maybe the greatest Fantasy Football team I’ve seen assembled. It was a two-quarterback league, and I started both Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. DeMarco Murray and Le’Veon Bell were my starting runningbacks. Jeremy Maclin and Julio Jones as my wide receivers. It was, in a word, dominant. I scored over 2,300 points that season excluding the playoffs. It was a high scoring league for sure, but no one came close to the number of points Team Mandarano put up week after week. (I also had the toughest strength of schedule, allowing the most points against). Unfortunately, I lost the in the championship to fellow writer Matthew Kress in what was statistically my worst week of the season by a landslide.

This year will be my second year in that league, and I’m back to seek vengeance. Anyone I’ve played with knows that I prepare for a fantasy draft more than a GM would for the NFL draft. I’ve got a binder about an inch thick filled with custom rankings and other information that I bring to the draft table each year. With many of the league’s teams ran by college kids like myself, the offline draft this year had to occur before we all returned to school. As a result, the league’s new commissioner hosted the 2015 Draft on August 14th. At that point, just 14 teams had even played just one preseason game.

I’ll NEVER draft that early again! Here’s why:

Reason #1: Martavis Bryant
On August 27, Adam Schefter reported that Bryant received a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s Substance Abuse Policy. The WR was ranked 14th at his position by Sports Illustrated prior to the preseason. Now, according the ESPN Mock Drafts, Bryant is the 35th receiver taken on average and ineligible for about a third of the fantasy season.

Reason #2: Robert Griffin III
Griffin suffered a concussion back on August 20. A week and a half later, Coach Jay Gruden confirmed that the Redskins starting quarterback would be Kirk Cousins for the upcoming season. Griffin, projected to be on rosters as a backup quarterback in most leagues, has quickly fallen to the ranks of the undrafted.

Reason #3: Jordy Nelson
Nelson was a top-5 wide receiver on most draft boards headed into the preseason. Sports Illustrated actually had him listed as the fifth. Despite not having missed a game since 2012, Jordy Nelson will be on the injured reserve for the entirety of the 2015 season. The injury occurred on August 23 and he was placed on the IR on September 1. Many early drafters are now without their early second round pick.

Reason #4: Kelvin Benjamin
Similar to Nelson, Benjamin will also miss the entire season. Ranked 18th at his position by the same Sports Illustrated rankings, Benjamin tore his ACL on August 19 and will not play for any fantasy owner this year.

Reason #5: Tom Brady
Thankfully, every football fan knows the story surrounding Tom Brady. Otherwise I’d feel obliged to use a few hundred paragraphs to explain it. Brady makes this list for a bit of a different reason than the previous four. Until September 3, it was ruled that Brady would be suspended for the first four games of the season. Fantasy owners planned accordingly, but with justified uncertainty. Last Thursday, U.S. District Judge Richard Berman nullified Brady’s suspension, thus declaring Brady eligible for all games in 2015, barring an unlikely victory in the league’s appeal. Naturally, Brady’s fantasy value has skyrocketed since the decision.

So when should you draft? Ideally the best draft date is after the final preseason game but before the first regular season game. That’s when the writers here at 30 Minutes of Madness will be drafting for our league, which by the way you’ll be hearing a lot about in the upcoming weeks. Be sure to look out for weekly fantasy recaps and previews during the season!

…and yeah, we’re glad it’s back too! Happy Football!

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