Jack Merlino
The Phillies gave away youth and got even younger.
Late Wednesday night, new GM Matt Klentak made the first big move of his tenure as the Phillies matched up with their favorite trade partner and switched their traditional roles, with closer Ken Giles headed to Houston in exchange for pitchers Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman, and Harold Arauz
Rumors had been swirling about these two teams matching up to send Giles to Houston, and it finally culminated on the final night of the Winter Meetings in Nashville, TN.
The Phillies, who for the past 2+ years have been stockpiling high-upside arms in their farm system, will likely spread their new additions across three levels.
Velasquez, a 22 year old righty and the centerpiece of the deal, will start the season with the AAA Ironpigs, barring some sort of cataclysmic spring that either sees him toss consecutive no-hitters or the Phillies experiencing a dozen injuries to other pitchers.
He features a plus fastball that can be dialed up to 96, an excellent changeup, and a curveball that is described as a "work in progress." After spending the beginning of the 2015 season at AA Corpus Christi, where he posted a 1.91 ERA in 33 innings, he was called up to Houston, where he made 19 appearances (7 starts) and had a 4.37 ERA in 55 2/3 innings. His Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) suggests that he had some bad luck, saying that his ERA would've been closer to 3.50 if he'd had some better defense behind him. Most impressive was his 9.4 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Velasquez has the upside to be a solid #3 starter, and possibly more. His stuff profiles well at the back of a bullpen, should he struggle too greatly as a starter.
Appel could also begin the season with Lehigh Valley. The former #1 overall pick has the stuff to be a legitimate ace, but hasn't put it together the way Houston hoped. He throws a fastball that grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale and a slider that scouts have said is among the best in baseball. His third pitch, a changeup, is what'll determine if he starts or relieves. It's said to be very middling.
Appel will go as far as he allows himself to. Again, the stuff is electric, but control issues and mental lapses have plagued him thus far. That being said, if there is one guy who could benefit from a change of scenery, it's him.
Thomas Eshelman is an enigma. On the 20-80 scale, his control grades as a 70. That's Aaron Nola-esque. In fact, he was touted as the 'Nola of the 2015 draft.' That alone could carry him to the big leagues. As long as the control remains, he has the upside of a #4 starter. The control absolutely needs to be sparkling, though; his fastball sits around 91 and very mediocre secondary offerings.
Oberholtzer is the most likely of the four to crack the major leagues immediately. This will be his 4th season in The Show, and he's consistently put up very 'meh' numbers with Houston. Over his last 32 starts, he's got a 4.40 ERA, with less than a strikeout per inning. He can be thought of as what Adam Morgan will turn out to be in a best-case scenario. To be fair, like Velasquez, Oberholtzer has had some bad luck, evident in the 3.56 FIP he had in 2014, his longest season.
At the very least, Oberholtzer should be able to slot into the back of the Phillies' rotation until some of their more highly-touted pitching prospects (perhaps even the one acquired in this deal) arrive to take his spot.
Arauz is pretty much a low-minors lottery card. It's hard to say what he can be- reports say he can throw a heater in the low-90s as a 20-year-old, but he was hit around a bit in Low-A ball to a 5.75 ERA.
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