Jack Merlino
Oh my God.
This offseason has...well...it's been electric.
I'm pretty sure every imaginable record for contracts has been broken except for overall salary, and there've already been multiple blockbuster trades. Heck, in what feels like the span of a week, Zack Grienke came out of nowhere to sign with Arizona, the same DBacks went and traded the remaining valuable parts of the farm system for Shelby Miller, and the Phillies traded Ken Giles, who was thought of as the closer of the future, for a quintet of Houston pitching prospects.
Between that trade and the graduating players in other organizations, the Phillies have to be in the conversation for best farm system in baseball. With that miserable segway, let's delve into my updated top-20 list. I took a variety of factors into consideration when making this, like ceiling, floor, league level, age, and production levels. I also selectively graduated some players off my list (Eickhoff, Asher, Altherr) while keeping others on (Velasquez) despite all of them previously spending some time in the MLB. That was more because the guys who've been around are better-known, whereas any pieces acquired this winter are not.
Given are name, position, likely 2016 starting point, background, and debut ETA.
1. JP Crawford, Shortstop (AAA): Crawford has a case to be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, and is in the conversation for top-3 (not that it truly matters) if Seager, Lindor and Buxton aren't counted. He has star-potential, and it's not hard to see why; ever since he's been in professional ball, the success has been nearly immediate. Every time he advances a league, he takes half a season to learn, then hits at an absurd level. He will provide premium defense and hit enough to be a perennial all-star candidate.
ETA: 2016.
2. Nick Williams, Outfield (AAA): I'll be honest; Williams, Appel, and Thompson are pretty much interchangeable as far as spots on this list go. I have Nick here at #2 because I love the potential. There's a real stud here if he doesn't regress. The power and speed alone should be enough to have Philly fans salivating, and Williams could be the first 30/30 threat since Bobby Abreu was shipped to The Big Apple. Unfair expectations aside, Williams is a real 5-tool player, the type of guy that the Phils would draft but fail to advance past High-A Clearwater.
ETA: 2016.
3. Jake Thompson, S. Pitcher (AAA): Thompson takes 3 over Appel because of the safety he comes with. He was untouchable after coming over from Texas, and has the upside of a #2 starter. With a solid fastball-slider combo that is accompanied by a solid-or-better curveball and changeup, Thompson should be one of the first names called when rosters expand this September.
ETA: 2016.
4. Mark Appel, S. Pitcher (AAA): Appel is a complete mystery. Well, sort of. He's a high-upside mystery. As far as I can tell, he has as much chance of becoming a legitimate ace as he does of ending up as a middle-reliever. He's got a fastball that grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale and a slider that grades as a 65. His third pitch, a very average changeup, will be what determines what future role he plays. Control was a big problem for Appel at Double-A Corpus Christi, and the Phillies are hoping the change of scenery will do some good.
ETA: 2016.
5. Jorge Alfaro, Catcher (AA): What you're looking at with Alfaro is some of his tools being ecstatic and the other ones being worrisome. The arm is amazing. The power is amazing. The blocking is not. The discipline is not. A very possible outcome is that the Phillies take Alfaro out of the catcher spot entirely with the hope that he'd be able to concentrate more on his offense; there's a chance the he's not the catcher of the future, but instead the first baseman.
ETA: 2017.
6. Vincent Velasquez, S. Pitcher (AAA): The centerpiece of the Ken Giles trade should be the first in line to come up when the Phils need an arm this upcoming season. Velasquez can dial it up to 96 miles per hour and offsets it with a plus changeup and decent curve. He has the chance to be a #3 starter and will get every opportunity to do so, but has the type of stuff that would play up in a high-leverage relieving role. The Phils might have traded their current closer for their future closer.
ETA: 2016.
7. Cornelius Randolph, Outfield (Low-A): The man with the best name in the organization is following the recent Phillies tradition of first rounders hitting the ground running. Randolph posted Crawfordian numbers in the GCL and, like JPC, could see himself being moved along quickly if he keeps up the strong numbers. He has the makeup to do just that; prior to the draft, he was described as the 'most advanced high school bat', and has the chance to be a Nick Williams-lite on the opposite side of the outfield.
ETA: 2019.
8. Franklyn Kilome, S. Pitcher (Low-A): Kilome might be the most overlooked pitcher in the system now. Between all of the high-upside guys knocking on the MLB door and the future 1st-overall pick, Kilome is forgotten as a guy who can have #1 potential if a few things break his way. As a 20-year old, he throws in the high 90's and has a NASTY curveball and leaves me saying "That just isn't fair" every time I see video of it in use. Out of all of the pitchers currently in the system, Kilome might end up the best. With all of the pitching ahead of him, the Phils won't rush Kilome for any reason, which will give him all the time he needs to develop.
ETA: 2019.
9. Zach Eflin, S. Pitcher (AAA): Before Thompson was acquired last summer, Eflin might've had the most upside among all the pitchers at the higher levels in the Phils' system. With a heavy sinker in the low/mid-90's, a very good changeup, and a serviceable slider. He is a safe bet to be a #3 starter, but maybe something more. With the amount of groundballs he generates, the Phillies defense can make him look a tad better by shifting appropriately.
ETA: 2016.
10. Roman Quinn, Outfield (AAA): Roman Quinn is really a tragedy. He keeps having freak injuries that knock him out for a half-season or more, so it isn't fair to label him as 'injury-prone', the way you would a guy who has the same reoccurring problems. When he's healthy, he's one of the five fastest players in all of baseball, which is due to his speed being graded as an 80. That makes his other tools play up. He even has some sneaky power, though he'll probably never pop 10 dingers in a calendar year. Think less than Odubel Herrera, but more than Ben Revere. Even if the hitting doesn't show up, his speed and defense WILL carry him to Philly.
ETA: 2016.
11. Scott Kingery, 2nd Base (A+): Kingery was thought of as a late-1st round pick, and the Phillies jumped at the chance to grab him with their 2nd pick last summer. The first thing to note is that Kingery will spend the vast majority of the 2016 season at 22 years old, so even if he starts at Clearwater, he'll need to move fast to stay a legitimate prospect. The good news is that Kingery has all the skills to move quickly through the system. He can be considered a legitimate 4-tool player, with his only below-average attribute being his power. Scouts love his hitting and approach, and when combined with his speed, it could make him a top-of-the-order catalyst.
ETA: 2017.
12. Adonis Medina, S. Pitcher (SS): There's nothing to dislike about a 19-year old starter with a fastball at 95 mph and the potential for two more plus pitches. While he's light years away and will take a fair amount of year years before he'll be ready for the major leagues, but there's an excellent chance (you know, relative for guys at his level and age) that he winds up as the next Franklyn Kilome and shoots up the prospect lists. ETA: 2020.
13. Andrew Knapp, Catcher (AAA): Knapp was drafted in the second round as an offense-first catcher. Since then, he's overcome some very 'meh' numbers and a Tommy John Surgery, and made himself a very big dot on the map. Knapp absolutely exploded at AA Reading, which, while not exactly pitcher-friendly, is a good indication of what Knapp's ceiling could be, give-or-take some counting stats. He'll begin next year with the Ironpigs and barring a setback should be one of the plethora of names called up come September, if not earlier.
ETA: 2016.
14. Carlos Tocci, Outfield (A+): Despite the absurd amount of outfield prospects in the higher levels of the system, lots of Philly fans breathed a sigh of relief when Tocci was passed up in the rule-5 draft due to his utter rawness. He's been in the system since he was 16 years old, and has never been in a league where he was regularly facing people his age. He could play Gold Glove caliber defense on a big-league squad right now, but the Phillies are giving him all the time he needs to get his hit tool to where it needs to be.
ETA: 2018.
15. Ben Lively, S. Pitcher (AA): Lively had a very up and down 2015. Early on, he was the ace of a stacked Reading staff. Later on, he stunk. He has the sort of frame and stuff that enthralls all types of scouts, and were it not for all of the starting pitching that's been injected into the system, he'd be one of the first candidates to fill a hole in the MLB rotation. Look for him to get a call-up late in the year as the Phillies try to ease the innings-workload on some of their other young starters.
ETA: 2016.
16. Ricardo Pinto, S. Pitcher (AA): Pinto has flown under the radar due to a combination of other names and stuff that won't jump off the page. It's far too early to tell how he'll adjust to AA, but he could end up being Reading's staff ace when all is said and done. Like Tocci, he's young and will have plenty of time to get some more seasoning because of all the guys ahead of him.
ETA: 2017.
17. Nick Pivetta, S. Pitcher (AA): Pivetta, a.k.a. Clone of Ben Lively, will...pretty much be doing everything Lively is doing. He's got a similar frame, a similar arsenal of pitches (though his fastball may be a tick better), and the exact same uniform. Though he isn't likely to be a notable contributor this upcoming season, it wouldn't be a grand surprise to see him planted firmly in the middle of an MLB rotation some day.
ETA: 2017.
18. Alberto Tirado, S. Pitcher (A+): Ladies and gentleman, this is the prospect below AA to pay attention to. Tirado, acquired in the Ben Revere trade, has an explosive fastball that has touched triple-digits and possible two more plus offerings if things go right. As you can expect, a 21-year old who throws 98 has as much control as the average tee-ball pitcher. That's evident in his 16:18 K/BB ratio in 16 Clearwater innings last summer. The Phillies have shown interest in converting him BACK to a starter, which he was before Toronto decided to fast-track him as a reliever last spring. If he successfully makes that switch and keep his walks to a manageable level, there's a legitimate ace to be had.
ETA: 2018.
19. Thomas Eshelman, S. Pitcher (AA): Being called the "Aaron Nola of the 2015 draft" should tell you how highly scouts rated Eshelman's control last June. When all was said and done, Eshelman averaged .4 BB/9inn in college. That's not a typo. Less than HALF a walk per 9 innings. That alone can carry him to the major leagues, and if he can harness his middling fastball/changeup combo, at the very least, you're looking at a back-of-the-rotation innings eater.
ETA: 2017.
20. Tyler Goeddel, Outfield (MLB): The Phillies found themselves a diamond in the rough with Odubel Herrera in last year's rule-5 draft, and hope they accomplished it for the second straight year with Goeddel. Initially drafted as a 3rd baseman, Goeddel was moved to the outfield in the Rays' system and flourished, posting good-but-not-elite numbers on both offense and defense. Since the Phillies are one of the safest bets to not contend next year, Goeddel should stay with the MLB squad all year. If the higher-ups feel like he needs more work, they can send him down after the season to make room for someone else. Ideally, he hits enough to earn the 4th or 5th outfielder bench spot.
ETA: 2015.
If nothing else, Phillies fans need to be optimistic of the future. Starting with the Jimmy Rollins trade last winter and running through the Ken Giles trade, there's been a rapid influx of quality talent at each level of the system. To put it in perspective, the first prospect after Crawford that the Phillies drafted is Cornelius Randolph, at #7. Roman Quinn would be #4 without all the new blood. That shouldn't be seen as a slight against either, but instead a testament to how much both former GM Ruben Amaro Jr. and current GM Matt Klentak have been able to do.
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