Don't Get Too Excited Carolina...

Matt McCullers

As I was fishing through several articles featuring an early preseason top-25 poll for next year’s NCAA basketball season, each featured UNC at the top or near the top. As a student at this fine university, I have countlessly witnessed many a Tar Heel’s quick recovery from a somewhat disappointing 2014-2015 season and an unquenchable hype for next year. And why not? Everybody except for J.P. Tokoto is returning. They will have the strongest frontcourt in the country with Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson, Joel James, and Isaiah Hicks. Rising sophomores Joel Berry, Theo Pinson, and Justin Jackson are going to improve in the offseason. The addition of Luke Maye will solidify the frontcourt and the addition of Kenny Williams will relieve Marcus Paige from the responsibility of being the team’s sole consistent three-point shooter. The Tar Heels feature a very deep, veteran team with power in all five positions. So why am I so hesitant about next year’s success?

There are several reasons for such an outlandish proclamation. The past three years of Carolina basketball have been introduced with great and exaggerated expectations. Here is a chart that demonstrates this:

2012-13

- AP Preseason ranking: 11, projected 3-seed in NCAA tournament

- Result: 25-11, 8-seed in NCAA tournament, lost to Kansas in second round

2013-2014

- AP Preseason ranking: 12, projected 3-seed in NCAA tournament

- Result: 24-10, 6-seed in NCAA tournament, lost to Iowa State in second round

2014-2015

- AP Preseason ranking: 6, projected 2-seed in NCAA tournament

- Result: 26-12, 4-seed in NCAA tournament, lost to Wisconsin in Sweet 16

Do you see a pattern here? Because of UNC’s storied past, they will always be ranked with some exaggeration. This puts an added pressure on these somewhat unconfident kids. Because of this pressure to keep the Carolina tradition alive, this team loses, often.

Another reason why Tar Heels should be hesitant is the strain of bad luck that has plagued Tar Heel basketball lately: injuries. Last year, the Heels were projected to make the Final Four. Last year’s injuries, specifically Paige’s, hindered that goal. Three years ago, UNC was the favorite to win it all. And they should have won the National Championship if John Henson and Kendall Marshall were not hurt or if Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland were not out for the year. Mark my words, with this many players, someone is bound to get injured next year.

Lastly and most importantly, the reason why Tar Heels should be hesitant is because this group of kids cannot finish, no matter how talented they may be. There were several games last year that UNC should have won, but did not due to lack of urgency, poor shot selection, lazy defense, missed free throws, and turnovers. If you notice, none of these factors are physical, they are all mental. This means that these problems can be fixed, but that lies in the power of the coaches and the players themselves. This is a problem that has ultimately accounted for the Tar Heel’s disappointing year. This team can choose to play like a top five team, or play like lousy bush-leaguers. Because of this issue and the others I have mentioned, every Carolina fan should not be elated that we are the favorite to win it all, at least not yet.