Rob Dunning
We’re down to the NHL’s final four, and teams that are accustomed to winning still remain. The heavyweights of the Eastern Conference go head-to-head in what should be a fun, compelling series, and same thing goes for the Western Conference. 8 wins separate one of these teams - the New York Rangers, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Chicago Blackhawks, and the Anaheim Ducks - from glory. All of the teams have travelled different paths to reach this point, which makes it even more intriguing.
The Anaheim Ducks, the number one team in the West heading into the postseason, have been the most dominant team in the playoffs so far. With a record of 8-1 versus their respective opponents, being the Winnipeg Jets and the Calgary Flames, the Ducks have dominated their much smaller opponents with their impressive size. The Anaheim Ducks average height and weight is 6’1, 205, so to go along with their skill, they also have a lot of size, and size is critical this time of year. Size allows teams to play on the boards as well as crash the nets, which are two key aspects to winning hockey games. If you can do that, you can go a long way in the playoffs, and it is obviously paying off in the playoffs for the Ducks. However, most of the Ducks roster is inexperienced this time of year, with a few minor exceptions. If there is one “flaw” with their roster, it is that some of the guys haven’t played in a situation like this, but that shouldn't stop the confidence of the red-hot Anaheim Ducks.
The team they will be facing is the Chicago Blackhawks. Representing in the Western Conference finals for the fourth time in the last six seasons, the Chicago Blackhawks have once again shown that they are a forced to be reckoned with. One thing that people have learned over the years is to never underestimate the Chicago Blackhawks, because they will find a way to beat you. Just ask the Nashville Predators and the Minnesota Wild, whom the Blackhawks bested 4-2 and 4-0 respectively. The Blackhawks have everything you want in a hockey club: speed, size, intelligence, and experience, making them a dangerous threat even as a lower seed this year. Even though they have had some goaltending issues, the Blackhawks have overcome that to reach the West finals, and should give the Ducks all that they can handle. Moving to the Eastern conference, we find two very similar teams squaring off in the final that seems more like a track meet than an actual hockey series. The two teams are the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, the 2nd seed in the Atlantic Division heading into the playoffs, are coming off their emotional series victory over the pesky Montreal Canadiens. After the Canadiens swept the Lightning out of the playoffs last season, the Lightning exacted their revenge and beat the Canadiens in the best of 7, 4 games to 2. The signature attribute of the Tampa Bay, speed, was clearly evident in their first two series against the Detroit Red Wings and the Canadiens. Seemingly being much faster than both teams combined, the Lightning used this to their advantage and racked up goal, after goal, after goal which placed them 4th in G/GP (goals per games played). It also helps to have a very sound defense and a monster in net, that being Ben Bishop (6’7 209). Overall, look for the Lightning to continue their fast, frantic play in the East Final against a team with similar play style; the New York Rangers.
The New York Rangers' path to the East Final was often very nerve-wracking and painful, but they certainly did earn it. After escaping a first round series against a very banged up Penguins team, where the five game result clearly didn’t show how close the series really was, the Rangers found themselves backed into a corner against a very familiar foe; The Washington Capitals. The Rangers showed their upmost resiliency and battled back to take the series in 7, after trailing 3 games to 1, on a Derek Stepan OT winner in Game 7. Not only did the Rangers reach the Conference Final for the 3rd time in 4 seasons, but they are also the first team in NHL history to comeback from a 3-1 hole in back-to-back postseasons. The Rangers not only displayed their speed, defense, and superb goaltending, but they also proved that they can comeback from almost anything, and have displayed numerous times that heart and character can sometimes overcome skill.
Now that we’ve displayed each team’s journey, let’s move on to the matchups, starting with the Blackhawks and the Ducks. Obviously, right off the bat, you have to look at the special teams. As it currently stands, the Ducks rank number one on the power play, while the Blackhawks rank 12th, yes, 12th, among penalty kill %. Even below teams that have already been eliminated from Stanley Cup contention, the Blackhawks penalty kill has been abysmal so far, so look for the Ducks to take advantage of that. Anaheim also leads all postseason teams in Goals for/against ratio at 5 on 5 at 1.69 , while the Blackhawks are the next closest of the teams remaining at 1.21. Defense is going to also be key in this series, as both teams are extremely experienced and talented on the back end. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook continue to be rock-solid pair for the Hawks, while Beauchemin, Fowler, and Lindholm continue to shine for the Ducks. Depth defenseman such as Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya are critical for the success of the Blackhawks, because if they can shut down some of the other lines on the Ducks, Keith and Seabrook can focus on Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Ryan Kesler, the dynamic trio for Anaheim. The battle in goal could also become very interesting with the breaking out part of Frederik Andersen and the struggling Corey Crawford. Crawford was so bad in the first round against Nashville that he was pulled for backup Scott Darling on multiple occasions. However, Crawford regained some of his groove from that series win against the Wild and looks as though he is reverting back to the goalie that won Chicago the Cup back in 2013. Andersen, on the other hand, has looked brilliant in Anaheim’s dominance with a .925 SV% and an even more impressive 1.96 GAA. For a goalie who is getting the chance at the No.1 goalie spot in his first postseason, not too bad for the 25 year old from Denmark. The battle between the center ice-man, mainly the two cornerstones, could be the matchup of the series. Both extremely good on face-offs, responsible in their own end, quality leaders and productive offensively, Ryan Getzlaf of Anaheim and Jonathon Toews of Chicago are the engines for their team, and they really compliment everyone that they play with. Speaking of which, the depth players in this series are the X-factor and will determine the outcome of the series.
Both of these Western Conference powerhouses are two of the deepest teams in the entire National Hockey League. Chicago boasts some of the best depth talent in forwards such as Patrick Sharp, Brandon Saad, Brad Richards, Bryan Bickell, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa, and Andrew Shaw, while Anaheim has Andrew Cogliano, Patrick Maroon, Jakob Silfverberg, Matt Beleskey, and Kyle Palmieri. Whichever team gets more production from their secondary players will win the series, because on paper, these teams match up very well in net, on the back end, and in the size category. Just based on their playoff success, outstanding goaltending, and experience, I believe that Chicago will take this series, but not by much, and the Ducks will put up one hell of a fight. Chicago will take this series in a hard fought 7 game series.
While the West features more brawn, strength, and grit, the Eastern Conference final will feature much more fast-paced action. The Lightning and the Rangers are two of the fastest teams in the NHL, and both boast some of the quickest north-south skaters in the league. New York may have the two fastest skaters in the NHL in Chris Kreider and Carl Hagelin, and other players who move very well such as Jesper Fast, Derek Stepan, and Martin St. Louis. Don’t think the Lightning are moving in quick-sand though because they have some pretty swift guys as well, including captain Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Ryan Callahan, and Alex Killorn. Expect a lot of frantic play throughout this series based on the sheer amount of skating speed that these teams have. The matchup in goal is the key to this series. Ben Bishop was outstanding in both rounds against Montreal and Detroit, while Henrik Lundqvist showed no signs of slowing down and continued his Game 7 mastery against Pittsburgh and Washington. I really don’t think either one of them is going to slow down, so expect a lot of frantic, low-scoring game, but a lot of shots on goal. Depth for these teams is also another key. Offsetting each other in a sense, the Lightning boast better talent up front while the Rangers boast better talent on the back end. What the Rangers lack in their forwards are what the Lightning lack in their D-men, so it really all balances out in the end. As in the Hawks-Ducks series, this series will be won on depth production, and whoever can provide it the most will win this series, no question. The team that also plays more physically will have the advantage in the later games. Both of these teams really lack in the brawn department, so the team that deals the most physical damage will certainly leave a good impression on the other. Look for players such as New York’s Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes (6’3 and 6’5) as well as Tampa’s Brian Boyle (6’7) and grinder Brendan Morrow to make an impact along the boards.
The X-factors in this series will be the faceoff dot, experience, and special teams. Starting with the face off dot, it has been the Ranger’s weakness all season long. Only one player on the Rangers, that being center Dominic Moore, is above 50% on face-offs (54.5%). As a team, the Rangers have a combined faceoff % of 44.8%, 15th out of 16 possible playoff teams. Tampa, not terrible, sits at 8th with a 50.6% . Obviously, Tampa Bay has a significant advantage, so look for them to exploit that on Saturday. Another key for both teams will be their power play and their penalty kill. According to NHL.com, both teams fair just about the same in both categories with the Lightning placing 9th on the power play and 6th on the penalty kill (18.0 and 86.7 percent respectively) and the Rangers placing 11th on the power play and 4th on the penalty kill (15.8 and 89.3 respectively). Whoever can deny the most power plays or convert on the most power plays will be the victor of the series. The Rangers also have the significant advantage in experience. The Lightning are a young team, but also have holdovers from the team that went to the 2011 Conference Final against the Bruins and players with Cup experience (Hedman, Stamkos, Ohlund, Boyle and Stralman all qualify) so they do have some playoff experience. However, they are facing a team that is fresh off a run to the Stanley Cup last season and consistently go deep every year they get into the playoffs. In other words, this team has been there and done it, and the Lightning have not.
This decision is even tougher than the Hawks and the Ducks because these two teams are even more similar than the Ducks and the Blackhawks. Both teams play a fast paced disciplined style hockey game that is just really fun to watch. The Lightning have more pop up front, but the Rangers have more pop in the back, and Lundqvist is playing exceptionally well as usual. Also, I believe the Rangers will win the physical battle based on their consistency on the forecheck and the matchup up front with their size really helps them. The Rangers strength is also based upon their cycle game, and if they can initiate that, the Lightning are in trouble, so that is why it is really helpful to have speed and size up front, and that is what the Lightning have to deal with. Star sniper Steven Stamkos is also facing the best shutdown defense core in the NHL, so I also wouldn’t be surprised if he is quiet in this series, and if he goes quiet, that puts more pressure on the depth players of the Lightning. The advantage to the power play and penalty kill, I believe, will also favor the Rangers. First, the Rangers have been getting a lot of quality opportunities on the power play and finally cashed in against the Capitals in Games 6 and 7, and it has looked really sharp. Second, as usual with them, expect to see a lot of blocked shots and if one manages to get through, expect Lundqvist to deny it. Once again, physicality, experience, and determination will carry the Rangers to the Stanley Cup Finals, but not without a challenge from the up-and-coming Tampa Bay Lightning. The Rangers take the East in a close 6 game series, winning 4 games to 2, setting up the Final between two Original Six teams; the Blackhawks and the Rangers.
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