10 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Busts

Matthew Kress

Football is finally upon us and training camp means your fantasy football draft is right around the corner. Listen, sleepers and busts win and lose fantasy football leagues every year. That’s one of the major, patented, prize winning rules of Matt Kress Fantasy Football advice. Plain and simple, someone outplays their average draft position and leads you to the elusive fantasy title that you shove into your friends face for the next year. Others falter and leave you looking towards baseball season. Here are some sleepers and busts to take a look at before your draft:

Sleepers

1. Carlos Hyde, RB 49ers  Bye: 10

Here is one of my juicier sleepers of the 2015 football season. Carlos Hyde was the former Ohio State Buckeye drafted by the 49ers in the second round of the 2014 draft. If you look at his 2014 season you’d call a 4.0 yard per carry and me crazy as he had 333 yards and 4 TDs in a down year. But not to worry as Carlos Hyde is a bowling ball. Standing at 6’0 ft. and 235 lbs., Hyde is extremely hard to bring down. Thus, the 49ers staff will give him a boatload of goal line carries. With Frank Gore in Indy, the starting job looks up for grabs and Hyde might take over a power run system. Trust me, its an easy 1,100 yard season with 7-9 TDS by my projections. Slot him in as a RB2 and pray for gold.

2. C.J Spiller, RB Saints  Bye: 11

This one might baffle some people. C.J Spiller is a life-time Buffalo Bill who made the change to the Saints this offseason. Though I think the Saints as a team are on the downturn, I think CJ is primed for some good numbers. The Saints terrible defense and Drew Brees’ tendency to check down to his RB’s lead me to believe that Spiller would hit the 1000 yard receiving mark before the 1000 yard rushing mark. He is second on the depth chart, so he’s not worth a high round or starting running back pick, but I see great value in the speed and receiving skills Spiller has to offer. Pick him up as a backup up running back or flex guy. Projections: 450 yards rushing 600 yards receiving 5-9 total TDs…aka Darren Sproles if healthy.

3. Ryan Tannehill, QB Dolphins  Bye: 5

Warning: this pick might win you a championship. If the QB keeps with his recent progressions you could see yourself in with a top 5 quarterback. In many mock drafts Tannehill is being selected after the likes of Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Philip Rivers. Be smart about this one. Last year Tannehill threw for 4,000 yards, 27 TDs and 14 picks. But with the recent moves the Dolphins have made to bulk up the receiving core, I don’t think that it’s far fetched to see the Aggie alum slinging 4,300 yards, 30 TD’s and just 10- 15 picks. In this year’s weak QB class, that would be a hell of a lot better than Eli and his boatload of interceptions. If you want to bulk up on your RB’Ssand WR’s on draft day and forget about a QB, look for Tannehill and watch him have his breakout year.

4. Joseph Randle, RB Cowboys  Bye: 6

This one is definitely a tough one as Randle teeters the line of being a sleeper and a complete bust. Nonetheless, the hype is warranted at face value because of a Dallas Cowboys offensive line that ranked second in run blocking. As seen, Demarco Murray went from an unheralded RB out of Oklahoma to star rushing leader with these big uglies. But for Randle it’s all about touches per game. They brought in Darren McFadden, who has and always will be a fantasy bust, but if Randle outplays him and gets 20 touches a game, then we could see that big play ability he has flashed in short glimpses. The idea of sharing touches though would be a complete death sentence as only a true bell cow is worthy of where Randle will be drafted in some leagues. In the end, Randle’s situation needs to be monitored. Id check up on the situation days following up to the draft and if it seems that he’ll get the bulk of carries before running with him. Currently, I have him rated as the 20th best running back, but that would surely improve if I knew he’d get 20 touches a game. If he starts and gets the bulk of the workload, I project 1,300 yards rushing with 5- 8 TD’s.

5. Sam Bradford, QB Eagles  Bye: 8

Contrary to popular belief, I’m not an eagles fan. Surely I get enough E-A-G-L-E-S chants shoved down my throat (the latest while peeing at an overcrowded Florida Georgia Line concert), but I tend to fly away from the beloved Eagles. So one could call this a surprise, especially if you look at his vast injury history. First a shoulder injury in college, then ACL problems for as long as he’s been in the NFL. The Eagles even went as far as publishing a study stating that there’s a 10-12% chance he tears the ACL a third time. But the talent is undeniable. If Bradford actually played with a good offensive line in Saint Louis, it would be a different story. Monitor this “QB competition between him and Sanchez” and then after the Eagles come to their senses, stick him on your bench and reap the benefits. He’s a great backup QB pick in a system that’s extremely quarterback friendly. I predict over 4000 yards with 25- 27 TD’s and say around a mere 10 interceptions.

6. Paul Posluszny, LB Jags  Bye: 8

This sleeper pick leads me to an interesting proposition for you readers. Most Fantasy leagues stick to team defenses over IDP. Honestly an easier choice in my opinion but if your looking for an idea to spice up your league the independent defensive player is a great way to do that. Some websites do not have the software to allow you to do it, but sites like Yahoo! and ESPN are capable of it. This leads me to the nine-year veteran out of “Linebacker U” (Penn State). The linebacker affectionately known as “Poz” had a tough season last year missing nine games with a torn pectoral muscle. But all reports out of Jags camp have pointed to him being fully healed. Now when draft night comes and the likes of J.J Watt and all the sack leaders are off the board, look towards the linebackers. They consistently will score you points because, as any football nut knows, the linebackers get a bevy of tackle opportunities. So if Poz is healthy, look towards him for a solid 110 tackles and 2-3 sacks in 2015. You know what rhymes with consistency? Posluszny! Well at least I think it does.

Busts

1. Martavias Bryant, WR Steelers  Bye: 11

I love Ben Roethlisberger this year, but since he’s basically a top round selection I cant count him as sleeper. Oh well. But one could easily say the stock invested into Bryant could be directly correlated with where he ends up on the depth chart. For many years, the Pittsburgh Steelers were known for their ground and pound style with players like Jerome Bettis leading the charge. My have things changed. This new offensive looks to spread the ball around with the many amazing athletes they have. Look at the lynchpins in the current Steelers offense. Targets that would be given to Bryant are stolen away from bigger name guys like Le’veon Bell, Heath Miller and Antonio Brown. Plus, recent reports of a pretty serious elbow injury and Big Ben’s interest in Marcus Wheaton make me stray away even more. Stay away from what many people see as a sleeper and draft something a little safer. I predict the deep threat to have no more than 600 yards and 5-7 TD’s.

2. Seattle Seahawks, D/ST  Bye: 9

Everyone’s heard the saying “defense wins championships.” In fantasy that’s actually not true. Fantasy is all about offense and if you’re put in the position to wait on a defense, I highly advise to play the waiting game. Defense should literally be one of the last starting spots you fill, right before Kicker. To all the Seahawks fans that live and die with the idea that the 12th man is the best defense in the NFL, I wouldn’t deny it. The Legion of Boom is one nasty defense that uses its top end secondary and D-line to wreak havoc on offenses. But this is fantasy! Don’t let your fandom take down your fantasy team. So use this one stat I have for you to out smart everyone. The Seahawks ended up tied for the 23rd spot in fantasy scoring defense last year in standard formats. So before you go crazy and draft the Legion of Boom, look at some other much younger defenses like the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, and the defensive minded J-E-T-S.

3. Brandon Marshall, WR Jets  Bye: 5

Speaking of those Jets, lets talk about their huge offseason signing, Brandon Marshall. Mr. Marshall’s career has more ups and downs than a roller coaster, but the once Bronco then Bear carved himself a nice niche in Chicago. But as the years went on with Jay Cutler, the immense fantasy frustration came with it. On paper, the trio of Cutler, Marshall and Jeffery looked like tops in NFL, but underachievement by the team and players only showed the WRs to be viable options. With Trestman gone as head coach and Marshall off to New York, everyone sees a decline on the horizon for the 31 year old. The ground and pound style didn’t work for the often-injured Eric Decker in year one, so why would it work here? I see last year’s injury bug as a common occurrence as well as the inept ability for Geno Smith to complete more passes to the other team than his own as the demise to Marshall’s season. I project him to get just 800 yards and 3-5 TDs.

4. Julius Thomas, TE Jags  Bye: 8

My heart sank the second I saw the 6’5” tight end leave the Broncos. With the tight end position so depleted, the abilities of a receiving TE like Thomas made him a must have commodity. Instead he moved to the Jags in this year’s free agency period and therefore tarnished any stock you once owned in him. With the likes of Blake Bortles and Allen Robinson still trying to figure the ins and outs of the NFL, people like Thomas will see a steep decline. Is he draftable? Yes, but currently I have him as the 8th best Tight end in my rankings. Draft him there and understand you’re not getting the 12 touchdowns you’ve seen in back to back years, or even anything remotely near 1000 yards. There will be a general inability to have an effectively consistent passing game in Jacksonville. I see a disappointing 500 yards and 5- 7 TD’s.