JT Volpe
As we begin this article, please sit down so that the next statement doesn't knock you over. Ready?
Sam Bradford will be the best fantasy quarterback in the 2015 season. Yes, the same Sam Bradford who is coming off of two ACL injuries and was unceremoniously discarded by the St. Louis Rams in favor of Nick Foles. Despite the fact that Bradford is rated just 16th overall among QB's by ESPN, I'm here to tell why he will be the sleeper of the year.
Things start with the offense he will be playing in. It is fair to have doubts about Chip Kelly's Eagles being a Super Bowl contender, as they've yet to win a playoff game under the new regime. But what cannot be denied is the fantasy production of players in Kelly's system, particularly his signal-callers. Let's glance at the numbers through Kelly's two seasons as Head Coach.
| Player | 2013 Pts | 2013 PPG | 2014 Pts | 2014 PPG | Total Pts | Total PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Rodgers
|
175.4
|
19.5
|
357.1
|
22.3
|
532.5
|
20.9
|
Peyton Manning
|
420
|
26.2
|
323.7
|
20.2
|
743.7
|
23.2
|
Andrew Luck
|
299.3
|
18.7
|
366.7
|
22.9
|
666
|
20.8
|
Drew Brees
|
369.9
|
23.1
|
319.9
|
20
|
689.8
|
21.55
|
Eagles QB
|
366.6
|
22.9
|
279.7
|
17.4
|
646.3
|
20.15
|
The reason I showed the stats for "Eagles QB" rather than a specific player is because of the injury problems the Eagles have had at quarterback. But the important takeaway is that the Eagles offense got production from a platoon of Nick Foles, Mike Vick and Mark Sanchez that compared admirably to the best quarterbacks in the league. This is mainly because the Kelly offense gets the most snaps in the shortest amount of time. More plays means more points. So the first piece to Bradford's success is in place - an effective offense evidenced by the data from the Eagles two seasons under Chip.
The next key is breaking down how Bradford will be able to take the next step. Foles/Vick/Sanchez ran this offense at a Top 5 (in fantasy terms) pace, How will Bradford make it the best? For starters, he's clearly the most talented QB Kelly has had thus far. Ignoring what Nick Mandarano will tell you about Nick Foles being the next Drew Brees, any football analyst recognizes that Bradford's issue hasn't been his abilities but his health. Consider the fact that Foles and Sanchez had nearly identical stat lines last year and that Bradford is miles ahead of Sanchez in the "position battle" this preseason.
Foles actually has better career stats than Bradford in several categories but I would argue that that only serves to prove my point about what the Kelly offense can get out of players, and says less about the talent levels of the two. Bradford looks much better on the eye test than Foles. Nick had a marvelous 2013 season that we will always thank him for, but last year he was plainly bad. Bradford has the deep ball arm and quick progression and decision making skills that the Eagles need.
Foles actually has better career stats than Bradford in several categories but I would argue that that only serves to prove my point about what the Kelly offense can get out of players, and says less about the talent levels of the two. Bradford looks much better on the eye test than Foles. Nick had a marvelous 2013 season that we will always thank him for, but last year he was plainly bad. Bradford has the deep ball arm and quick progression and decision making skills that the Eagles need.
Bradford will also get the chance to torch a few really bad defenses. Week 1 against Atlanta hits all the checkboxes of a huge night. Eagles playing in prime time? Yep, Monday Night Football. Good conditions for passing? Atlanta plays in a dome! Plus the Falcons were the worst defense against the pass in 2014. Other weeks where Sammy B will have a good chance to light things up include two games against Washington and one against the Jets. who were both in the Top 3 in Passing TD's Allowed last year. Also keep in mind that Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews and Josh Huff are probably better as a receiving core than anything Bradford had in St. Louis.
The only big con here is, of course, injuries. Two ACL tears in two years is something most would consider "not good". The Rams obviously felt it was enough of an issue to cut ties with the 1st overall pick of the 2010 NFL draft. Their really is no magic 8-ball here to know one way or another if Bradford stays healthy. Chip Kelly can personally whip up all the smoothies and hydration tablets he wants but quarterbacks get hit, The one thing to have confidence in is the Eagles offensive line. While they seem slightly worse than last year on paper they still project to be among the top 10 in the league and without a doubt better than the line in front of Bradford when he was a Ram. You have to draft Bradford for the Rookie of the Year that he was and All-Pro caliber player he can become and not the ACL injury he might be.
Ultimately, if you're holding one of the first five picks in your draft and you want a sure thing, take Rodgers or Luck. But if you're drafting later, stock up on WR and RB talent in the early rounds and nab Bradford later on. In most leagues he'll be there in rounds 6-8. If he starts all 16 games I truly think you'll find yourself with the best fantasy QB in football.
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