Surprise X-Factors for MLB Contenders

Rob Dunning

It’s August 5th, 2015, and the playoff race is just heating up. With that in mind, many teams are bidding for shots at the postseason, whether it is for that uber-important second wild card spot or their own division crown. Baseball is a game filled to the brim with superstars and aces, however, it still remains a team game, and teams will need all 25 guys to contribute down the stretch in order for their team to qualify for the postseason. Every single player on the roster is responsible for helping the team, so it’s the time of year where we see minor parts become major. So, let’s name a few guys who aren’t legit superstars or bona fide aces, but could make a huge impact on the playoff landscape.


Chicago Cubs (58-47, current holders of 2nd Wild Card in National League)

Jason Hammel, SP:

This might be a bit of a strange answer, but hear me out for a second. The Cubs are bidding for their first postseason berth since 2008, and we all know the strength of the Cubbies: their young, talented position players. Down the line, you hear names like Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Dexter Fowler and Addison Russell. All of them have performed very well this season while staying relatively healthy, so the Cubs are in a good position as far as offense, but what about their pitching? Their pitching staff is anchored by Jon Lester (6-8, 3.26 ERA), the ridiculously underrated Jake Arrieta (11-6, 2.62 ERA), and deadline acquisition Dan Haren (7-7, 3.42 ERA, 1.09 WHIP w/ MIA), but past them are a lot of question marks in their rotation. Guys like Edwin Jackson, Kyle Hendricks, and Clayton Richards are decent options, but all lack that extra gear that teams need from rotation depth. If they are to survive in the very rich pitching National League, the Cubs rotation is going to need depth and experience. A guy like Jason Hammel, who could slide into that 3rd or 4th slot, could turn out to be HUGE for the Cubs. His stats this year are somewhat underwhelming (6-5, 3.13 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), but he just needs to be good enough behind Lester and Arrieta for the Cubs. He also provides them with a guy who has pitched in the postseason before (2009 with the Rockies and 2014 with the Orioles) so he knows what it takes to win in the playoffs and pitch down the stretch. Besides, any pitcher that has THAT kind of offense behind him should be able to do pretty well. So, in summary, if Hammel can become a great #4 or solid #3 for the Cubs, they will have a very good chance to get in the playoffs and make some noise with their explosive offense.

Toronto Blue Jays (56-52, current holders of 2nd American League Wild Card)

R.A Dickey, SP:

The 40-year old knuckleballer might turn out to be the most important pitcher on the staff for the Toronto Blue Jays, and that includes a rotation with David Price in it. However, like the Cubs, the Blue Jays have a stellar offense and very, very risky pitching. Toronto comes into the day ranked 10th in the American League in team ERA (3.96) and 10th in quality starts (50), so that is probably why they targeted Tigers ace David Price at the deadline. Price is certainly going to anchor the rotation the last two months of the season, and Mark Buehrle (11-5, 3.32 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) has been surprisingly good in his age 36 season. With those two at the top of the rotation, it is up to R.A Dickey to anchor the bottom-half of the rotation. The 2012 Cy Young Award Winner has been very good in his last two outings for the Blue Jays with a combined 15 IP, 9 hits, 3 BB, and 0 earned runs. If this is a sign of things to come for Dickey, who has had a sub-par season (6-10, 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP), the Blue Jays should be in good shape for the stretch run. That would give the Blue Jays 3 legitimate starting pitchers for the last two months, which is certainly better than what they had a week ago. Much similar to the Cubs, any pitcher who gets that kind of offensive team behind him should be able to uphold his end of the bargain. His knuckleball could be the key for the Blue Jays, who haven’t qualified for the postseason since they won the Series in 1993. If he can even resemble half of what he was in 2012 for the Mets, and builds off his momentum from the previous two starts, the Blue Jays, combined with their lethal offense, could be a serious threat come September/October.

Baltimore Orioles (54-52, 1 GB of 2nd AL Wild Card)

Chris Tillman, SP

Another team that seemingly has too much offensive firepower and very scarce pitching are the Baltimore Orioles, who are a part of the logjam of teams fighting for that 2nd wild card spot in the American League. You look at the stats and you wonder how the Orioles are not running away with one of the spots granted that they are 6th in the AL in runs scored and 6th in the AL in ERA, but it just hasn’t worked out yet. They have all kinds of firepower in Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis, but their pitching staff doesn’t quite give them starts necessary to win. Their starters rank 23rd in the AL in quality starts, and things don’t seem to be getting better for the O’s. They did not get a pitcher at the deadline, nor do they have the in-house options to upgrade at the moment. Their bullpen has been a saving grace for them all season, led by relievers Darren O’Day and Zach Britton, but if the Orioles are going to get in, their starters are going to have to go deeper into games and give them quality starts. Guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, and Ubaldo Jiménez have been okay for them so far this season with respectable numbers, but it simply isn’t enough and they are pitching out of place in the rotation. A guy like Chris Tillman could be the pitcher that provides it for them. Tillman had terrific seasons in 2013 and 2014 for Baltimore (2013: 16-7, 3.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP; 2014: 13-6, 3.34, 1.23 WHIP) and has just recently picked up his game recently for Baltimore. In his last three starts, he has gone 23.2 innings allowing just 7 hits and 1 earned run, sporting a 2-1 record. A guy who has always had good plus pitches, he should be able to keep this momentum going down the stretch, and Baltimore is certainly going to need it to reach the playoffs. If Tillman keeps pitching like this, Baltimore has a solid front line starter that can go deep into games, putting some ease on the bullpen and the other starters as well. Top that off with their really good lineup and they are a team that could push for that last playoff spot.

San Francisco Giants (58-48, .5 GB of 2nd NL Wild Card, 2GB of LA Dodgers in NL West)

Mike Leake, SP

It is has been an unusual year for the San Francisco Giants to say the least. The defending champs have experienced something they haven’t felt in a long time; a lack of starting pitching and bullpen arms. They have been absolutely depleted based solely on injuries to the like of Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, etc. What makes this even stranger is that San Francisco is notorious for not being able to score runs, but this year they rank 2nd in the NL in runs scored. Man, baseball is such a weird game, buts that exactly why we love it so much. Now, back to the pitching. Obviously, they have an absolute horse in Madison Bumgarner and surprising rookie Chris Heston leading the way at the top. But as is the case with many other teams in the league, who’s that 3rd guy in the rotation that could make a difference down the stretch? The answer just might be Mike Leake. Originally, I was going to go with Hunter Strickland out of the bullpen because he possesses something that almost every team has nowadays; a reliever who throws 100, and the Giants have struggled out of the bullpen recently. But, as is the scenario with most teams, you need starting pitching depth to win. Mike Leake will provide the Giants with a solid arm that can slide into the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation and should toss a ton of quality innings. He was the lone acquisition at the deadline for the Giants who have seemed to fill a major hole with the former Red. His numbers this year are pretty solid for the Reds/Giants (9-6, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and they should only get better since he moves to the cavernous AT&T Park in San Francisco. He has a little bit of postseason/pennant race experience with the Reds (2010 and 2012) and is joining an organization that has won 3 of the last 5 World Series Championships and maximizes pitchers to their fullest potential. Throw him in behind Bumgarner and Heston, and in front of veterans Matt Cain and Jake Peavy and that’s solid rotation heading down the stretch. Couple that with their good offense and their experience and the Giants become an October threat once again for the division or the wild card.

New York Mets (57-50, 1st in NL East)

Daniel Murphy, 2B

The Mets are a team with complete polar opposites; really terrific, young starting pitchers and a meek offense that has combined to rank 29th in runs, 30th in batting average, 29th in on base percentage, and 29th in slugging percentage. Because of that, the Mets have made a lot of moves within the past few weeks to try and help their offense. They went out and got Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe for lineup/bench depth, promoted their top hitting prospect Micheal Conforto , and made a big splash by getting Cuban slugger Yoenis Cespedes from Detroit. Since adding those guys, the Mets offense has gotten progressively better, resulting in a run that has put the Mets in first place. Certainly the guys they got in the trades have made an impact, but the Mets will need contributions from others to remain where they are. Someone like Daniel Murphy, who has the potential to be a .300 BA/.330 OBP player, will be key for this team during the stretch run. A good gap-to-gap hitter, Murphy enjoyed his best season last year where he hit .289, had a .332 OBP, 9 HR/57 RBI, and slugged 37 doubles. Murphy is only hitting a modest .269 this season, but his .322 OBP is solid, and it should continue to increase as long as Murphy has the protection behind him. He should be able to see a ton of more pitches because of that increased protection, which could either result in an increased number of walks or increased number of good pitches to hit. With the return of Travis D’arnaud, the lineup having more depth, Cespedes, and the suddenly red-hot Lucas Duda, the Mets lineup suddenly looks pretty good, so it’s imperative that someone get on base in front of them. A career .288 BA/ .332 OBP hitter, Murphy has the potential in the #2 hole to get on base in front of these guys, or he can slide down in the lineup where he has the ability to drive in runs. He has just enough pop to make a difference for the Mets, whether it be getting on base for the Cespedes/Duda combo in the middle or hitting behind them with the capability of driving them in. If the Mets offense is able to get contributions from role players like Murphy, and their starters and bullpen remain terrific, they should be able to continue the hunt for their first NL East Crown since 2006.

Minnesota Twins (54-52, 1 GB of 2nd AL Wild Card)

Trevor Plouffe, 3B

The Minnesota Twins, along with the Astros, have been the biggest surprise in all of baseball in 2015. A team that was picked by many to be the worst team in the American League sits one game out of the last playoff spot in the American League on August 5th. The Twins have been really well-rounded all season, and are just about in the middle of the pack when it comes to every major statistical category. If the Twins are really going to be over-the-top for the rest of the season, someone like Trevor Plouffe could really make a big difference in the lineup. Plouffe’s numbers this season (.253, 14 HR, 55 RBI, .313 OBP) are not by any means an indication of his talent level. One of the more underrated players in baseball over the past few years, Plouffe has the ability to hit 20-25 homeruns and drive in 60+ runs. Last season, Plouffe only hit 14 homers, but drove in 80 runs, had a solid .328 OBP, and hit 40 doubles, showing that he can be a good #3 hitter in a lineup. If Plouffe can find a way to get hot down the stretch in the middle of the Minnesota lineup, they become a much better team moving forward. Also, one of his most underrated skills comes in the field, where he has proven this year to be a very good glove man at the hot corner, sporting a nice .978 fielding % and committing just 6 errors all season. With the injuries on the infield for the Twins, he becomes essential as an everyday player the rest of the season for the Twins. If he starts hitting, gets on base regularly, and pops a homer now and then, he turns a lineup with Brian Dozier, Tori Hunter, Joe Mauer, and Miguel Sano into one that suddenly has some potential. With that, the Twins can continue to surprise people and could quite possibly snatch up that last spot, completing a true Cinderella story.

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