The Demise of the 300-Win Pitcher

Nick Mandarano

300 wins. It’s one of those numbers in baseball that locks you into the Hall of Fame without questions asked. Seriously, there have been 23 pitchers over the course of history to accumulate 300 wins, and all 23 have been inducted into the Hall of Fame now with Randy Johnson’s recent induction.

Source: hardballtalk.nbcsports.com

In 1986 and 1988, we were lucky enough to see as many as seven eventual members of the 300-Win Club simultaneously playing. Interestingly enough, each year from 1890-2009, with the exception of 1945, has seen an eventual 300-win pitcher. In the midst of World War II, both Warren Spahn and Early Wynn were serving in the military in 1945. Otherwise it would have been 120 straight years with an eventual 300-win pitcher. Now it’s 2015 and it seems Randy Johnson may have been the end of an impressive streak. Take a look at the active leaders in career wins:

Tim Hudson (40)	220
Bartolo Colon (42)	214
CC Sabathia (35)	212
Mark Buehrle (36)	210
Barry Zito (37)	165
AJ Burnett (38)	163
John Lackey (36)	161
Freddy Garcia (38)	156
Justin Verlander (32)	153

Of the nine active pitchers at least halfway to 300, 7 are aged 36 or above. Let’s generously assume Hudson pitches until he’s 44…he’d need to average 20 wins a year for each of the next four years in order to reach 300. A 20-win season is something he’s done just once in his 17-year career and not since he was 24. Bartolo Colon’s chances are even slimmer. He’s 42 years of age; old enough to be the father of Bryce Harper, and still 86 wins away. Zito, Burnett, Lackey and Garcia would each need to nearly double their careers’ work to reach the 300-win plateau. Assuming age doesn’t play a factor and they each keep up their career pace, they would need to pitch until they were 51, 52, 50 and 53 years old, respectively. Putting this into perspective, the oldest pitcher ever to record a win? 49-year old Jamie Moyer in 2012. We’ve essentially eliminated 6 of the top 9 active win leaders from 300-win contention already. But there are three more names on the list that we may be able to put our faith in.

Justin Verlander is a 6-time All-Star, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young, and even MVP winner. The 32-year old stands at 153 wins through 10 years of pitching, totaling as many as 24 in a single year. Another 10 years of the same production would result in 300 wins, but we know that’s not too realistic. In 2014, Verlander led the league in earned runs and boasted an unimpressive 4.54 ERA. His strikeout rate, which had defined the prime of his career, has steadily declined since his 2011 Cy Young season from an impressive 9 K/9 and 4.39 K/BB to 6.3 K/9 and 3.33 K/BB in 2015. The righty was the league leader in complete games with 6 in 2012 and hasn’t thrown one since. Since that 2011 season, his average fastball velocity has dropped from 95mph to 93mph. In 9 games this year, he’s gone 1-4 with an ERA over 5. Verlander is without question over the hump, but many will argue he’s quickly approaching the end of his career as an effective starter. Barring any miraculous turnaround, it doesn’t seem like Verlander has enough left for 147 more wins.

Mark Buehrle has averaged about 13 wins a year throughout his 16-year career resulting in a total of 210 victories, just 90 away from the mark. His impressive age 36 season (this year) has showcased an 11-5 record thus far with a 3.32 ERA (his best since 2005), 1.170 WHIP (best since 2001), and league leading 4 complete games. It’s safe to say that he may not be 2005 Cy Young Award candidate Mark Buehrle or 2002 19-game winner Mark Buehrle, but his age doesn’t seem to be pulling him much downhill. Perhaps he still has some good years ahead of him, but how far is he? Well put it like this…he has to have at least 6 more good years ahead of him in order to get there. That’s a long road. Since 2012, his rate of wins per games started would suggest that he’s 214 games away from 90 extra wins. Let’s reasonably assume that, if he stays healthy and stays an effective starting pitcher, he pitches 32 games a season from here on out. That brings Buehrle to win number 300 at the close of the 2021 season at the age of 42. Remember, this is assuming injury does not play a factor and he keeps the pace he has. 36 is old for a pitcher, but it’s really just the beginning of old. There’s a good chance that at some point he does hit some decline. 300 wins is surely within reach for Buehrle, but he really cannot afford any injury or even just a single bad year. If everything goes right, there’s an outside shot that Buehrle is our 300-win hero, but it seems more likely than not that he’ll fall just short.

The final name on the list is CC Sabathia, who is younger and has more career wins than Buehrle. One would imagine if Buehrle has any shot, Sabathia’s would be even better. I’d argue not. Hitter’s are making contact with Sabathia’s pitches at a career-high rate. His opposing batting average, FIP, WHIP and ERA are all also at career-high rates over the past two seasons and it’s not close. In 2015, Sabathia is 4-8 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.436 WHIP. He is by no stretch of the imagination the CC Sabathia that once dominated hitters across the league, and there’s no sign that that Sabathia will ever return. Although he’s just 88 wins shy of 300 and only 35 years young, Sabathia’s chances are slim to none without an incredible comeback. Even at 11 wins a year, which seems impractical for the gigantic lefty anymore; it would take him until age 43 to hit the target. I promise you Ol’ Carsten Charles is not averaging 11 wins a year at age 43. I doubt he’s even pitching at age 43. His only chance at redemption is a revival back to a Cy Young candidate. If that were to happen, and happen soon, 300 wins is right around the corner for Sabathia. But let’s be honest … it’s more likely that the Phillies win the 2015 World Series.

Is there anyone in baseball that we can look to as our next 300-win pitcher? Right now, it doesn’t seem to be so. Long gone are the days of 50-, 40-, even 30-win seasons. A few 20-win seasons in a pitcher’s career nowadays is considered exceptional. 300 wins is 15 years of 20 wins. One reason we can point to is that pitchers pitch fewer innings. A 5-man rotation and pitch count hinder pitchers’ chances at totaling a larger sum of wins. Pitchers not going as deep into games gives pitchers less chances to win and less decisions overall. Obviously, with the 5-man rotation, pitchers are also not getting nearly as many starts. There’s a boatload of reasons one could point to as to why 300 wins have become so elusive. It’d be great to see another 300-game winner in the future and it’s absolutely possible. Who knows where baseball is headed? Maybe the next name to be added to the list will be one of these superprospects like Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino, or Lance McCullers. Maybe the next name will be the kid in high school you’ve been reading about in the paper. Maybe the next name hasn’t yet held a baseball, or hasn’t even been born. Maybe there will never be another name. Regardless, it seems for at least the moment and the near future that the 120-year streak has come to an end.

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